In recent months, against the background of rising prices for individual food products, the downward trend of overall inflation has slowed down, and its level remains unchanged. At the same time, continued high consumer activity and expected pro-inflationary risks in the external environment necessitate maintaining tight monetary conditions in order to reduce inflation to the medium-term target level.

According to the press service of the Central Bank, since the beginning of 2026, there has been a certain acceleration of inflationary processes in the economy. As a result, core inflation moved on an upward trajectory and in February amounted to 6.3% in annual terms. At the same time, due to a decrease in the influence of seasonal factors, overall inflation was formed at the level of 7.3% without significant changes.

In turn, rising food prices contribute to maintaining high inflation expectations.

Economic activity remains at a high level due to aggregate demand. This is reflected in the dynamics of retail and wholesale trade, the number of real estate purchase and sale transactions, as well as in the execution of budget expenditures. These factors support steady growth rates in industry, services, and construction.

During this period, there was a significant increase in producer prices. In conditions of high demand, this increases the likelihood of transferring producer costs to final prices and their subsequent reflection in consumer prices.

Increased geopolitical tensions in the external economic environment also create upward risks for prices. In particular, as a result of disruptions in global supply chains, energy and food prices are expected to rise on the global market, as well as increased transportation costs due to changes in logistics routes. This may lead to additional pressure on inflation through import prices.

Improved positive expectations regarding the stability of the currencies of the main trading partners, continued high gold prices, as well as steady growth in export earnings and remittances indicate that there is no significant pressure on the real exchange rate of the national currency.

There is a gradual normalization of lending rates in the economy. The rigidity of monetary conditions, combined with the application of macroprudential measures in the consumer lending segment, helps to balance aggregate demand and reduce excessive pressure on prices.

Taking into account the above factors, it is necessary to continue a tight monetary policy to ensure price stability and reduce inflation expectations.

The central Bank will continue to closely monitor the dynamics of inflation, inflation expectations, aggregate demand and external risks. In case of risks of delay in achieving the inflation target under the influence of the above factors, monetary conditions may be further tightened.

The Central Bank's monetary policy will aim to reduce inflation to the target level of 5% in the medium term, ensure macroeconomic stability and preserve the purchasing power of the population.

The next meeting of the Central Bank's Board to review the base rate is scheduled for April 29, 2026.