Such data are provided in a study conducted by the American Institute for Health Indicators and Assessment. The study was published in The Lancet on the eve of World AIDS Day, celebrated on December 1.
The authors of the study examined data on HIV morbidity and mortality in 204 countries and territories around the world. According to data for 2021, the number of people in the world with HIV has reached 40 million, in 2010 there were 29.5 million. In 2010, scientists point out, 2.11 million new HIV infections were detected worldwide and 1.19 million people with HIV died. In 2021, there were 1.65 million and 718 thousand, respectively. The main contribution to the reduction was made by the improvement of the HIV situation in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Thus, in these African countries, the probability of HIV infection during life decreased from 21.8% to 8.7% over the specified period, although it remains the highest in the world. The number of deaths in this region has decreased from 106.5 to 45.5 cases per 100,000 people in 12 years.
Meanwhile, the authors of the study point out that over the same period, the situation in the countries of Central, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia has deteriorated significantly. The number of deaths from HIV in these three regions increased by 10.4%, and 28.3 thousand people died there in 2021. In addition, the situation in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East is difficult. The number of deaths in these regions increased by 40.7% over the specified period, and 11.1 thousand people with HIV died there in 2021.
According to scientists, the incidence of HIV and mortality in the world as a whole will continue to decrease. So, in 2030, according to their estimates, 513 thousand people may die from HIV, and in 2050 - 327 thousand. The number of people with HIV will continue to grow, and by 2030 there will be 43.7 million, in 2039 this figure will peak at 44.4 million, and then it will slowly begin to decline. Scientists believe that by 2050 there will be 43.4 million people living with HIV in the world.
