The budget deficit, according to forecasts, is expected to reach 5% in 2023 due to high expenditures in the energy sector, as well as significant expenditures on education, salaries, pensions and social benefits in the public sector, with a decrease in budget revenues.

It is expected that the Government of the Republic will adhere to its restrictions on external borrowing. However, public debt will increase to 36% of GDP in 2023 and reach a peak of 36.6% in 2024, according to forecasts.

Despite the strengthening of social protection programs, the reduction of remittances and private consumption may limit progress in the fight against poverty in Uzbekistan. A slight decrease in the poverty rate is projected to 13.9% in 2023.

There are risks of deterioration of this forecast, such as the economic situation in Russia, global inflationary pressure and global financial conditions.

Positive trends may include an increase in world prices for resources such as gold, natural gas and copper (Uzbekistan is an exporter of these goods), as well as an increase in productivity in various sectors of the economy due to structural reforms.

The World Bank also stressed that in 2023 Uzbekistan will be one of the fastest growing economies among the countries of Europe and Central Asia.